A single big number can make any strategy look good. Ask these five questions before you trust it.
1. How many trades is it based on?
Ten winning trades prove very little, since luck can easily produce that. The more closed trades, and the longer the period, the more the numbers mean. Be especially careful with a strategy that has only just started.
2. How deep did it fall?
Look at the deepest drawdown next to the net result. A strategy that made 40R with a 6R drawdown is a very different ride from one that made 40R with a 30R drawdown. Then work out what that drawdown would mean at your own risk per trade.
3. Do the wins pay for the losses?
Win rate alone can mislead. Compare it with average win and average loss:
- A 70% win rate is poor if each loss is much bigger than each win
- A 40% win rate can do well if the wins are large
Profit factor combines the two: total R won divided by total R lost. Above 1 means it made more than it lost.
4. Are these real signals or a backtest?
A backtest is run on past data, often after the rules were tuned to fit that data. A live feed records signals as they happen, so it can't be adjusted later. Live results count for more, even when they look less impressive.
LogicFlux publishes both, and labels which is which. Live-feed results are tracked signals rather than a client's account, so your own fills and costs will differ.
5. Does it suit how you trade?
Check the market, timeframe and how often it trades. A strategy that holds trades overnight may not suit an account with strict rules. One that trades rarely will test your patience, however good it is.
Compare them side by side
The leaderboard ranks every strategy on these numbers, and each strategy page shows its history. Past results don't guarantee future results, but they do tell you what kind of ride to expect.